人民的效率面前,或者如何结束所有能源派系主义

Batteries versus hydrogen fuel cells.Electric cars versus Micromobility.Why all the factionalism when there is still so much work to be done?

Courtesy: Python (Monty) Films/HandMade Films

In Monty Python's布瑞恩的生活,the People's Front of Judea was a revolutionary rabble whose hatred of the Romans was second only to their hatred of the Judean People's Front,犹太人民阵线,朱迪亚的人民阵线,respectively.(注意牛津逗号,kids.)

Sadly,jejune othering is a human,all too human affliction that transcends politics [1] and spills into the world of low-carbon transport.

Logic suggests its advocates should unite and conquer,但是narcissism of small differencesdemands that battery-electric vehicle,plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicle fans must denounce each other with histrionic polemic.Hades help the heretics whose outreach to non-early adopter communities leads them to pitch a tent big enough to accommodate other aligned allies like conventional hybrids,improved combustion and lower-carbon fuels on the one side,以及公共交通和主动交通(步行,骑自行车)。[2]

关于电池电学方面的一个流行的教学是效率的福音,which scapegoats fuel cell vehicles owing to batteries' higher efficiency at turning re万博体育怎么充值newable electricity into motion.Turning fuel cells -- not combustion engines,but fuel cells -- into the Emmanuel Goldstein of transportation is a masterful sleight-of-hand: as we all know,batteries have从未been at war with combustion.Batteries are at war with fuel cells.电池一直与燃料电池作战。

遗憾的是,the argument of efficiency,密封时,is as flimsy as bubble wrap.The analysis itself shows why.

According to canon,owing to losses incurred in hydrogen electrolysis (the generation of hydrogen by running electric current through water) and pressurization,an initial 100 kWh of electricity might result in 51 kWh of hydrogen (1.5 gallons of gasoline equivalent) entering the vehicle.Doing the math,the 67 mpge-rated Mirai could travel 101 miles on an initial 100 kWh of electricity.

Batteries fare better,with that initial 100 kWh only dropping to 77 kWh (2.3 gallons of gasoline equivalent) once the battery is charged.The Toyota Prius Prime -- very similar to the Mirai -- earns 133 mpge on battery mode,so could travel 306 miles on that initial 100 kWh of electricity.

For BEVs a correction factor is then needed to properly account for the parasitic impact of all the kWh of energy associated with the thousands of kilograms of CO2 emissions required to manufacture batteries instead of fuel cells in the first place.And that's … oddly absent.呵呵。Bit of an oversight,it seems.比方说,would Ming Dynasty accountants have praised the Great Wall's cost-effectiveness by highlighting opex and burying capex?(I jest;这个长城和马吉诺线一样划算。.)

Given the selective context,the canon tells the truth,但不是全部的真相。On the b万博体育红利反水right side,it's not as if this diagram is used as a sort of "blood libel" passed around epistemically-closed battery circles,万博体育红利反水正确的?[Narrator: it is.]

To add a "he said,she said" element to the graphic,我有一张A的桌子McKinsey reportshowing that fuel cell vehicle life cycle emissions are on par with -- if not lower than -- battery-electric vehicles'.(Would McKinsey lie?) Are these findings distorted by convenient assumptions?也许;它是与氢理事会联合编写的。Is it anywhere near as contextually deceptive as that efficiency diagram?No;这是一个很高的标准。

For the record,I suspect batteries will come out marginally ahead on a life cycle analysis,主要得益于能量储存的第二生命。The margin will probably be modest enough thatParkinson's Law of Trivialitywill remain in effect.

Matthew Klippenstein

So far,so good - but wait.

There's one … more … thing.

e-bikes,假设相同的电网损失,would manage 5,100 miles on those 77 kWh.This assumes 1.5 kWh gets you 100 miles,based on page 15 of a 2018 reportcompiled by Efficiency Vermont.(Would socialists lie?) To be charitable to the autos,we won't factor in the positive externalities from the riders' pedalling.无踏板微移动通常涉及重型车辆,so they might not be quite as good.Perhaps 2,000 miles?

And for conventional bicycles?100 kWh of grid electricity will get you to infinity and beyond -- after all,they don't use it.Instead of wasting electrons on your own transport,你可以改善你的健康,同时使一个100千瓦时的煤厂接近破产。

The Gospel of Efficiency is unequivocal: two wheels good,four wheels bad;the rest is commentary.BEV部落成员指责燃料电池汽车效率低下,这相当于匈奴人阿提拉称成吉思汗野蛮。To claim otherwise is ignorance or agnotology.

That's a pity,because zero emission transportation deserves advocates who prioritize outreach over in-fighting.这项事业值得那些谦逊到足以应付数亿——几十亿人的狂热者们去做!-- of combustion vehicle owners exactly where they are in life,respecting their individuality,instead of deafly proselytizing pet solutions.If current ZEVs don't fit the bill,我们传递信息,以便将来的人传递。

Battery electric vehicles in particular need advocates who can form alliances.Success breeds conceit,and it's when we think we can go it alone that we most need a constellation of friends.

And the biggest reason high-handedness today could cost BEV triumphalists tomorrow,is because…

礼貌:HBO

BEV是电动汽车的Robb Stark

At the moment,BEVs are leading the charge against the corrupt pollution of Big Oil.They're winning market 万博体育红利反水share victories,are clearly ascendant,and look poised -- destined!-- to rule the streets,avenging society's century-ago spurning of the electric car.

Alas,not every heir becomes the king.

十到二十年后,at triumph's cusp,BEV fans planning fête and celebration will watch them walk into slaughter.(Consistent with Game of Thrones,the disdained,overlooked bastard child of electric transport -- micromobility -- will come out of the wilderness to be acclaimed the true successor.)

What villain will plunge the knife?Fuel cells?当然不是;BEV fans have as much to fear from fuel cells as the United States had to fear from Grenada prior to its7,600-soldier,8300枚奖章1983 invasion.

Who will betray BEVs?Why,today's climate-striking students,当然。

When their movement matures,气候紧急情况越来越严重,它将抓住效率的福音,并以罗伯斯皮埃尔的热情来运用它。After all,紧急情况下不需要采取紧急措施吗?

They won't know Efficiency is only supposed to be worshipped in the garage;they'll uphold it everywhere.They'll apply it against all automobiles,against all detached houses,against all eating of meat,and probably other inefficiencies as well.

Their Republic of Virtue will lionize the lifestyles of car-foregoing,condo-dwelling vegetarians such as climate policy critic Bjorn Lomborg (!) and demonize the single occupant vehicle-driving,garage-owning,steak-grilling habits of most of today's electric-car evangelists.How's that for a role reversal?

Tomorrow's Ultras will see BEVs as Trojan horses championed only by those who wish to maintain a comfortably-inefficient,carbon-indulgent status quo of sprawling suburbs and auto-centric cities.Far from BEVs ranking among the seventh heaven of climate solutions,他们将被扔进地狱的第八圈。(Fuel cells and plug-in hybrids too,of course;the ninth and tenth circles being reserved for gasoline and diesel.)

Thus will the micromobility vanguard hound electric car enthusiasts on tomorrow's social media platforms with the same taunts the latter use against fuel cells on today's.Life above all else is a sublime ironist.

这并不是说个别乘用车会消失;they'll have a significant future,even after micromobility is crowned.It's more to say that social scorn,like solar,is a re万博体育怎么充值newable resource -- and thattoday's heroes are generally tomorrow's villains.

Why will this take ten or more years?社会运动必须经常孕育,因为领导者需要时间才能联合成一个强大的网络。STEM-educated critics may have dismissed Occupy Wall Street after it fizzled in 2011,but humanities-trained observers see its resurrection in Bernie Sanders' 2016 nomination run,2018年“AOC”中期,and the litmus tests currently facing 2020 Democratic nominees.

Some further examples: Ronald Reagan's 1980 victory took place nine years after the鲍威尔备忘录;it was nine years from Rosa Parks to the Civil 万博体育红利反水Rights Act;and twelve from the failed Russian Revolution of 1905 to the successful one in 1917.(Note the Oxford分号;we run an erudite site here at TheDrive.com.You should bookmark us.)

Sure,some social movements probably do arrive on-scene without a years-long simmering.But given that students are leading the climate strikes,the movement will probably need a prolonged gestation.In fifteen years,plus or minus,today's teenagers will have networked with each other in colleges and universities;they'll have ascended the ranks of the professions;they'll have studied the levers of profit and policy;然后他们就会掌权。

I,一方面,will welcome our 万博体育怎么充值new activist overlords,and cheer them as they grapple to reconcile their minds' austere ideals with life's baroque complexities.

They'll need people who've navigated past factionalism before,to advise them in their efforts to rebuild their cities,世界,and future,远离我们这一代人的过去。And whatever the "bun fights" of their era may be,they'll need grey-haired advice to guide them away from the temptation so many ZEV advocates succumb to today — of putting petulance over progress.

Baldness notwithstanding,one of those voices will be mine;it'd be a mordant joke for cooperation to remain a lesson lost in time.

[1] Every Canadian election,the Communists and Marxist-Leninists set aside their similarities to field competing candidates,preferring to split their 万博体育红利反水shared 0.07 per cent of the vote,than combine forces.

[2] For all the well-deserved excitement around zero emission vehicles,不列颠哥伦比亚省的模型表明,在2030年之前,减少燃料的碳强度将有三倍——三倍——减少排放量的影响,因为需要10%的ZEV销售——而不是ZEV信贷,but ZEV sales -- by 2025 and 30% by 2030.See page 15 in theCleanBC highlights report.