塔利班试图用新的阿富汗战略努力杀死马蒂斯

强调了这个国家的脆弱状态,叛乱分子在喀布尔的机场发起了大胆的攻击。

AP照片/ Reza Shiricohammadi

塔利班试图暗杀美国国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯几个月后,他直言不讳地承认了阿富汗政府及其美国LED联盟合作伙伴were losing the war在对抗塔利班叛乱分子和恐怖分子的国家,包括Isis。在首都Kabul上的哈米德卡尔泉国际机场的巨大攻击是美国政府仍在努力为冲突实施新的愿景。

在2017年9月27日的攻击中,阿富汗叛乱分子在机场射击了至少40轮,包括火箭推进手榴弹和砂浆炸弹,根据报告。Mattis早些时候到达了正式访问,但由于这些类型的安全问题,正时恰恰是毫无谴责的。

没有迹象表明,局长是从不准确的轰炸的任何实际危险。它做了reportedly杀死一个平民,伤口近十几个,并导致阿富汗军队杀死了四个武装分子的附近邻居的消防场所。官方声明from the U.S.-led coalition said it had conducted an air strike in support of the Afghan response, but that "tragically, one of the missiles malfunctioned, causing several casualties."

美国最长的战争

“当我们展望我们如何将这种战斗和恐怖主义威胁到阿富汗人的恐怖主义,对国际社会以及如何将其放入政治和解的道路上,这是一切竞争。顶级美国国防官员后来说过在总统宫的一天,与阿富汗总统阿什拉夫加尼举行。“我们在这里设定军事和安全条件,但最终识别了阿富汗领导下的责任。”

北约秘书长Jens Stoltenberg还与Mattis一起前往阿富汗。美国陆军将军约翰·尼科尔森(John Nicholson)在全国各国和联盟部队负责人,在新闻发布会上加入了他们。

AP照片/ Rahmat Gul

美国国防部长詹姆斯泰斯秘书,右,阿富汗总统Ashraf Ghani,中心和北约秘书长Jens Stoltenberg。

The trip comes more than a month after President Donald Trump unveiled a new U.S. government strategy for the war in Afghanistan and the broader security situation in South Asia. Trump’s speech described what appeared to be largely a rehash of old ideas and, more worryingly, was经常模糊和矛盾,没有明确迹象表明冲突如何实际结束。

“最终,阿富汗人民占据了他们未来的所有权,以管理他们的社会,并实现永恒的和平,”特朗普在他的演讲中宣布2017年8月21日。“我们是一个合作伙伴和朋友,但我们不会对阿富汗人决定如何生活,或如何治理自己的复杂社会。我们不是再次建设。我们正在杀死恐怖分子。“

但尽管如此,特朗普承诺了一系列政府的方法,包括外交和经济努力,以及急剧上涨的军事活动。他还介绍了盟友,主要是印度,加强对阿富汗的经济和其他发展援助。这些参与一直是总统刚刚减少的过去国家建设的主要组成部分。

特朗普还表示支持阿富汗的支持不会“空白支票”,不得不通过其政府和安全部队的实际进展符合,几乎与语言总统巴拉克•奥巴马使用his own policy speech2009年。另外,特朗普再次在奥巴马之前完成,归因于巴基斯坦的需求,以阻止叛乱分子和恐怖分子在其边境方面自由运作。巴基斯坦政府有反复和强行否认它不愿意或无法对这些群体行事。

AP照片/ Rahmat Gul

Afghan police take up positions after bombings in Kabul in March 2017.

一个新的策略

大量特朗普的新规定似乎基本上是战术而非战略性质。最有意义的是,“战略”重点致力于放松未指明的“限制”如何以及当美国力量和合作伙伴能够进行操作。许多人认为这主要是为了减少现有强调的意图避免平民伤亡,特朗普政府已经在伊拉克,叙利亚和其他地方进行了实践。

“来自华盛顿的微型管理,D.C.不赢得战斗,”特朗普在他大的揭示下说道。“他们在战时指挥官和前线士兵实时行动的判断和专业知识的实地赢得了现场,与真正的权威,并具有明确的使命来击败敌人。”

政策公告的详细信息几乎没有关于美国政府将用于在战场上和脱离战场的进度和成功的情况下,也不会增加任何力量。特朗普坚持认为,这是他的竞选活动的一部分,以保证这些信息秘密并防止它给美国敌人的优势。

“我多次说过这是对美国宣布我们打算开始或结束,军事选择的日期的反对筹备程度,”特朗普说。“我们不会谈论部队数量或我们进一步的军事活动的计划。”

AP

唐纳德特朗普总统于2017年8月宣布了新的阿富汗和南亚战略。

实际上,它似乎没有小部分,因为没有人在演讲之前已经同意了细节,或者这使得这使得这一点完全被遗弃了。美国职员联合院长主席的美国空军的负责人,而Mattis本人在讲话开始以来,他们一直在记录他们一直在最终确定他们想要增加混合的军队总数。

“实际上是为时尚早,讲述这将在加强和减少方面的意思,”美国空军一般大卫·戈德·戈德师在接受采访时表示路透社出版on Aug. 22, 2017. “Obviously the Joint Chiefs will work through their plans and make proposals, but I think the guidance was pretty clear from the president last night, and we’re going to go on the offensive and destroy these terrorist networks,” Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson, who had joined Goldfein to talk to Reuters, added.

On Aug. 28, 2017, Pentagon spokesman U.S. Army Colonel Rob Manning confirmed华盛顿邮政尽管特朗普的政策公告,仍然计划继续进行。Mattis告诉主席,员工联合职员美国队将联合议员Joseph Dunford“汇集了一个计划来实现总统战略的战略目标。”

从部署数百个额外的地部队以及送更多F-16 fighter jets and KC-135 tankers to Afghanistan. The use of B-52 bombers flying from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which始于2017年3月, has also continued to increase. There was also a troubling admission that not only had the Pentagon grossly underrepresented the number of personnel it had in the country to begin with for years, but that it did not necessary知道真实的数字本身。

“The first thing I have to do is ‘level the bubble,’ and account for everybody that is on the ground there now," Mattis said on Aug. 22, 2017. "The idea being that we’re not going to have different pockets that we are accounting for.”

USAF.

A US Air Force F-16 takes off from Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan.

定义成功

在他对阿富汗的访问之前,国防部长似乎承认,他于2017年9月24日前往印度时仍然存在许多未知数。一位记者特别询问他在长期跑步冲突中取得成功的指标。

“是的,我不准备给出那些,因为我需要去阿富汗,我需要与其他国家坐下来,并与他们一起谈论指标是什么,并让我们全部谈论我们的头在一起,“他提供回应。“所以,一旦我有的话,我会得到非常具体的。一般而言,您知道指标是什么,但我想得到更具体的程度。“

他没有详细说明这些明显明显的标准。这个变形是什么新的,什么是“它”可能成为一个关键的笑话争议Netflix原创电影关于阿富汗战争机器

我们在战区,我们已经缺乏明确的目标和理想的最终状态,因为不幸的是美国现在在阿富汗的16年竞选活动中的一致元素。2017年6月,我写道:

不幸的是,没有保证任何这一项就会比过去更好地工作。从历史上看,阿富汗的地方腐败已经削弱了这些努力。SIGAR [阿富汗重建的特别检察机构]经常发现了美国官员浪费金钱,在不必要的项目上浪费了金钱,当地承包商欺骗美国和阿富汗政府等等。该国的军队经常证明无法快速吸收新设备的交付,甚至可以提供适度改进的系统,并使它们良好使用。我们在伊拉克和叙利亚看到了“建议和协助”的团队,这些团队无法独立于外部支持,或者刚刚出现行动,可以很容易地翻译成大多数人合理地考虑美国军队的战斗。

即使在没有看到Mattis的最终提议,任何计划的怀疑论者的理由也一般来说,一般来说,与此同时,这一般,这常不可或象是因为这么多负责制作新战略的个人都参与了制作的一定程度他们现在说的旧的人失败了。While he retired from the Marine Corps in 2013, his fellow Marine, General Joseph Dunford, who is now Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the head of American and coalition forces in Afghanistan, U.S. Army General John Nicholson, have been in uniform the whole time. Before taking up his current post, Dunford had held Nicholson’s job title. Nicholson previously served as both a brigade-level and regional commander in Afghanistan. In those positions, they both went on the record with pronouncements that later turned out to be far detached from the reality.

In 2009, Nicholson, then a brigadier general and the top coalition officer in Southern Afghanistan, said he was “unapologetically optimistic” about the upcoming surge of troops that President Barack Obama had recently announced. “To me, to see this increase in U.S. forces means we are now resourcing our counterinsurgency appropriately to accomplish what it is we have laid down in our [Afghanistan-Pakistan] strategy," he continued in an official military interview. “So I am very encouraged and feel that this is going to make a big difference.”

AP照片/罗伯特烧伤

美国陆军将军约翰·尼古尔森,离开,美国海军陆战队将于Joseph Dunford在2016年在阿富汗举行会议。

多年的浪费努力

没有理由认为这些因素现在比2017年早些时候的挑战更少。事实上,证据已经出现了一些被称为“阿富汗病情”的证据甚至比以前所理解的更糟糕。

Earlier in September 2017,Sigar发布了an exhaustive and damning report cataloging the failures of more than a decade of a assistance to Afghanistan’s own military, which the U.S. government routinely says is and has to be in the lead as part of any successful resolution to the conflict. The $70 billion dollar effort – a relatively paltry sum that amounts to an average of $5 billion per year,大致相同到美国预计2018财年旨在挑战俄罗斯侵略的欧洲军事活动,而且这些都没有积极的冲突 - 从令人担忧的令人担忧的问题令人困扰。

全国北约培训使命通常不到50%的授权人力,限制了重点关注凝聚力机构的发展的能力。这意味着最大的建议和援助努力去了战斗要素,留下重要的物流和行政职能批判性欠发达。

这种影响在功能上具有破坏性,而且整体士气,阿富汗部队无法维持各种可能对打击塔利班和其他群体的重要设备。我们有专门突出了这些问题在战区的内容阿富汗空军

美国军队

美国人员将UH-60A +直升机装载到阿富汗到C-17货运平面上。

“Critical … capabilities, including aviation, intelligence, force management, and special forces, were not included in early U.S., Afghan, and NATO force-design plans,” the U.S. government watchdog noted in a press release. In turn, “providing advanced Western weapons and management systems to a largely illiterate and uneducated force without appropriate training and infrastructure created long-term dependencies, required increased U.S. fiscal support, and extended sustainability timelines.”

Afghanistan's special operations forces have since become especially competent and capable, but remain a small portion of the country's overall security forces. Their abilities and willingness to engage the enemy has meant they're responsible for the大多数战斗行动, though, even when they might be生病了至the job.

最重要的是,外国联盟认为警察是对军队的次要重要性。使用准警察部队,如Afghan Local Police民兵和现在已经存在阿富汗公共保护部队,为了帮助填补地方一级的安全空缺也经常反而效力。

“据据报道,随着阿富汗政府和美国对阿富汗政府和美国的责任有限,据报道,这些警察部队从事人权滥用,贩毒和其他腐败活动,最终担任安全净批评者,”全面审查注意到。“虽然美国因这些问题而停止支持两个计划,但阿富汗当地警方今天继续运作。”

APPhoto/Massoud Hossaini

阿富汗制服的警方于2015年回应了哈米德卡尔岛国际机场的另一次攻击。

美国LED联盟的常规无法妥善分配军事顾问and contractors由于文盲,腐败,持续存在,只有复杂训练阿富汗人的困难鸦片贸易等因素。在许多情况下,协助人员尚不了解他们应该教学的主题。

“一名美国官员看电视节目,如警察和NCIS,了解他应该教会[警察,”根据Sigar的新闻稿。“在阿富汗东部,我们遇到了一名美国陆军直升机飞行员,分配了教导警务。”

这不会是美国军队的新启示。由于信息法案的自由,我们从2016年获得了一份国防督察一般报告,就阿富汗情报人员培训,虽然重新删除,但介绍了许多同样的问题。

“The contractor trainers said they largely relied on materials provided by CSA [combat support agencies] LNOs [liaison officers], unclassified training material from the internet, and their own experience,” according to an unclassified section. Though we don’t know what agencies specifically provided some of the training information, the Pentagon’s战斗支持机构确实包括国家安全机构,国防情报局和国家地理空间情报局。

国防部通过恐惧

Neither the Department of Defense Inspector General nor the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan has answered queries about whether or not personnel in the country had implemented recommendations in that report, which were almost entirely redacted. The coalition's public affairs office has yet to answer whether or not it still sees the previous assessment of the existence of an "Afghan Condition" as valid.

虽然Mattis在喀布尔的机场播放了攻击,但塔利班在该国首都这样一个公共场所罢工的能力,由阿富汗和外国势力严重监测,强调了冲突的真正状态。它仍然不清楚数百或即使是几千additional American and other coalition troops will be able to do anything besides maintain the status quo stalemate, at least in the near term.

“We are ready to train, assist, and advise,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sept. 27, 2017, a somewhat odd remark given that the alliance has been running training activities for more than a decade already. “We would like to help you break the stalemate that we have seen,” he added, echoing earlier comments by Secretary Mattis and General Dunford.

打破这个循环的关键将被克服inherent challenges of Afghanistan, as well as finally closing off save havens in Pakistan to militant groups, which has long stymied the U.S. coalition's efforts to neutralize the Taliban, the Haqqani network, and other factions opposed to the government in Kabul, which exist on both sides of the border. Without truly addressing this multi-national issue, its hard to see how Afghanistan and its partners could truly arrive at any final settlement.

现在,马蒂斯已经看到阿富汗,塔利班已经杀了他的杀戮,它仍有待观察他将在特朗普政府继续尝试和落实他们对美国最长的战争的愿景。

联系作者:joe@thedrive.com